Preflop: SB or BB facing a BTN or CO open (steal node). The BTN opens wide and the population significantly over-folds to 3-bets in these positions. This is a pure preflop frequency exploit.
Observed
Fold to 3-Bet: BTN
Observed
63%
Baseline
48–55%
Delta
+8 to +15 pts
Fold to 3-Bet: BSS (Blind vs Steal)
Observed
58.50%
Baseline
50–57%
Delta
+1.5 to +8.5 pts
Benchmark
A GTO-aware BTN opener should fold to 3-bets at 48–55%; a BSS node should fold at 50–57%. These ranges balance defending enough to make 3-betting marginally profitable while not giving away EV by over-folding. The NL10 reg pool consistently folds above these thresholds — most sharply at the BTN where opens are widest and the fold gap is most exploitable.
Deviation
BTN fold-to-3bet: +8 to +15 pts above baseline. BSS fold-to-3bet: +1.5 to +8.5 pts above baseline.
The BTN gap is the primary exploit: BTN opens wide but then folds too often when 3-bet, making late-position steal nodes a high-frequency target for 3-bet pressure from the blinds.
Section II — Interpretation & Execution
Inference
BTN opens wide, then overfolds vs 3-bets — call ranges become more capped than they should be.
Population under-defends in steal-heavy preflop nodes.
Preflop pressure is under-applied by the average reg pool — 3-betting is a positive-EV frequency adjustment.
This is a high-frequency node: BTN opens happen constantly in 6-max, so even marginal edge compounds quickly.
Exploit
3-bet more from SB/BB vs BTN/CO opens. Keep value 3-bets stable — increase bluff volume.
Three-part adjustment:
Increase 3-bet bluff volume with blocker combos from the blinds.
Keep value 3-bets (QQ+/AK) stable — do not over-expand.
Use a larger sizing OOP (4x–4.5x) and smaller IP (3x–3.5x).
Why it works: if BTN folds 63% to 3-bets vs a 48–55% baseline, every additional 3-bet bluff you add against that population is printing EV when they fold — and when they call, their range is capped and post-flop realization is poor.
Execution
Line A: SB vs BTN open → 3-bet A5s, A4s, K9s, QTs (blocker + playability) → small c-bet on favorable boards, barrel selectivity on turns.
Line B: BB vs CO open → add JJ/AQs as value 3-bets, use smaller sizing (3x–3.5x).
Revert to baseline against any villain showing a low fold-to-3-bet profile, sticky calling tendency, or obvious recreational profile.
Do not 3-bet any two cards — this is a volume adjustment on good candidates, not a frequency override.
Ghost Field Card — Module 01
Ghost Poker Intelligence · Field Card · Module 01
Punish Late-Position Overfolds
NL10 · 6-Max · Online Cash
High EV
Population Data (NL10 Reg Pool)
Fold to 3-Bet: BTN
63%
Baseline: 48–55%
Δ +8 to +15
Fold to 3-Bet: BSS
58.50%
Baseline: 50–57%
Δ +1.5 to +8.5
Trigger
SB/BB vs BTN/CO open (steal node). Standard sizing, no strong villain read.
Primary Exploit
3-bet more from SB/BB. Increase bluff volume. Keep value 3-bets stable.
Use These Hands
A5s–A2s, Kxs/QTs (blockers)
QQ+/AK (core value)
JJ/AQs vs wide opens
Avoid
Weak offsuit trash without blockers
OOP hands with poor realization
Sizing Guide
OOP (SB)
4x – 4.5x
IP (BB)
3x – 3.5x
Execution Lines
Line A: SB vs BTN open → 3-bet A5s more often → small c-bet on favorable boards.
Line B: BB vs CO open → increase blocker 3-bets, tighten vs frequent 4-bettors.
◆
“BTN opens wide, then folds wide — the steal node is yours.”
Ghost Poker Intelligence · V1 Population Intelligence Pack · NL10 6-Max
Study tool only · Not for real-time use
V1 Population Intelligence Pack
This is one of five modules. The pack contains all of them.
Four more exploit findings — 3-bet/4-bet imbalances, missed c-bet probes, passive-line collapse, fragile river bets — plus printable field cards for every module. One-time purchase, instant access.